The year is 1347—the Mongol hordes besiege the Crimean city of Kaffa, a trading post for the Genoa Republic. Although the land supply lines were cut, Kaffa never really depended on them. With its mighty fleet and maritime supremacy, Genoa has no problem transporting the necessary provisions to its trading post. The walls are strong and thick, and the Mongols, though intimidating, seem to be powerless against the defenders.

On a cold late summer evening, a guard patrols the streets near the city wall. The sky is dark because the moon has not yet risen. Suddenly a human corpse descends from heaven. The guard immediately alerts the city garrison, and hundreds of soldiers gather on the city walls. A dozen guards surround the body. It’s a Mongolian warrior. Its whole body is covered with black spots, and the stench of it is unbearable. A few minutes later, several more bodies fly in from the sky. They bear the same marks of death. 

The soldiers instinctively retreat, and a special detachment collects and burns the bodies. To their horror, however, it is too late. They have all witnessed two historical moments. On the one hand, the soldiers are the first participants in biological warfare in human history. On the other hand, this city’s guards became carriers of the second, most deadly wave of the worst pandemic ever to roam the Earth – the Black Death. After five centuries of absence, the bubonic plague has returned, and in the next four years, it will change the course of history. 

A year earlier, in the Chinese trade centre, Wuhan, people started dying by the masses. How the first victim got infected is unknown, and it hardly matters. Pandora’s box had been opened, and the world was about to face a cataclysm that can only be compared to mass extinction. The silk road and the Mongol’s supply line brought the deadly disease to the edge of Europe in just several months. The Hord, surrounding Kaffa, began dying rapidly, and it was a matter of time before the Mongols ran out of soldiers to siege the city effectively. They are not ready to call it quits, though, and certainly are not very famous for retreating from a fight. Instead, they took their disadvantage and made it a cruel, deadly, and sinister weapon of mass destruction. 

The people of Kaffa are in a panic. The wealthier of them immediately board their ships and set sail for Italy. The poorer are doomed to die either by the Black Death or by the Mongol sword. The city falls.

While escaping, however, merchant ships unknowingly offered transportation not only to the wealthy citizens of Genoa but also to the rats and fleas spreading the disease. In this way, they sowed the seeds of the worst pandemic in human history in the heart of Europe.

The ships docked in Sicily, Naples, and Genoa, where the unwanted passengers quickly infected the local population. The Apennines at that time were the centre of trade in Europe, and most trade routes passed through there. It was these pathways that spread the disease rapidly throughout the continent. Within four years, from late 1347 to 1351, the bubonic plague was so prevalent in Europe that it forever changed its appearance.

The damage  

For the common man, living on the brink of survival and relying only on his faith in God, happier life awaits him after death, the bubonic plague is perceived as the end of days. A true apocalypse. In less than four years, 60 per cent of Europe’s population has died from the dreaded disease. In some settlements, the mortality rate reaches 100%. Historical records say there were not enough living people in Naples to bury the dead. The streets of Europe were filled with fear, death, and horrifying smell. The stench of decaying bodies enveloped dozens of cities across the continent and the Mediterranean.

The lack of science and knowledge to explain what was happening inevitably led to the most terrible human traits – hatred and violence. In search of a scapegoat, many countries saw minorities as the reason for this outburst of death. Jews, as infidels, were an easy target for the scared masses. Since the majority believed that the Judgement day was upon them, there was no way to convince them that a person, who denounces your religion, was not guilty. Massacres, beatings, and evictions further contribute to the depopulation of Europe.

However, the chaos was not just in Europe. About 1/3 of the population in the Middle East also had fallen victim to the disease. Although there is no exact data for the Far East, the situation was similar, with various sources claiming that the victims were in the millions.

Scientists suggest that the total number of deaths from the Black Death is over 200 million. That would be devastating even now when the world’s population is 7.1 billion. At a time when the population was only 475 million, such mortality was on the verge of destroying human civilization as a whole. To put it in perspective, to be able to grasp how unimaginably disastrous such mortality would be for any society, we can compare it with nowadays. The situation would be the same if 3.15 billion people died in 4 years. Such an event will not only destroy the entire economy of the planet, but it is quite possible to change our civilization unimaginably.

In fact, this is precisely what happened after the plague of 1347.

How the plague changed the world

No matter how cruel and tyrannical a ruler is, he realizes that his wealth comes from the people. People are a resource. When this resource is threatened with extinction, decisive action must be taken immediately. After the initial chaos in the European kingdoms, the rulers managed to bring order relatively quickly. The ancestor of the public health system was formed.

Italian cities were the first to try to bring order to the panicked population. They appointed a health magistrate who had full legislative, judicial, and executive power over all matters relating to public health. Later, these administrations will be reformed and will remain permanently in the form of public health administrations.

The task of these magistrates, and their equivalents in the rest of Europe, during the plague, was definitely not easy. Europe in the middle of the 14th century was not a pleasant place by any means. Sewage water ran down the streets, people’s personal hygiene was as sterilе as a pile of manure, and the drinking water was as clean as the Ganges. The magistrates needed to address all those issues to reduce the spread of infections. This meant that, for the first time in human history, the ruling class was making laws that protected the interests and health of its subjects. They include laws about the hygiene in slaughterhouses, something unthinkable until this moment, laws protecting human health and even quarantining part of the population to protect another.

The quarantine

The quarantine actually comes again from northern Italy, this time from Venice. The Trade Republic designated two islands, which they called Lazaretos. Every incoming ship was disinfected there (as far as possible in the middle of the 14th century), and its passengers were kept in custody for 40 days. This is where the etymology of the word quarantine comes from – the Italian word for 40. 

Interestingly, the 40 days proved to be sufficient by chance. They were chosen not based on scientific, but rather on religious reasons. The number 40 is sacred in Christianity and is associated with purification. Moses stood forty days on Mount Sinai to receive the Ten Commandments, Christ was tempted for 40 days, and after his resurrection, he stayed with his disciples for 40 days before ascending. Coincidentally, the bubonic plague’s incubation period is shorter than 40 days, and the method proved to be infallible.

In France, the quarantine policies were even harsher. Each citizen was required to register with the local administration. He was then given food and locked up in his home for 40 days without the right to leave. Inspectors, escorted by guards, passed by every day and asked about the health condition of every person in the house. Lying about your health status was punished by death. So was breaching quarantine. 

Despite these measures, France lost about 70% of its population. Paris, one of the world’s biggest cities at the time, lost half of its citizens during the four years. 

How the plague changed human society. 

Ever since the dusk of the Western Roman Empire, the world has entered in a cruel yet stable social order. Feudalism has ruled the world for more than a millennium, and its core values are not very fair. A highborn noble owns the land and forces peasants to cultivate and work on it. Then they pay a tribute, and the rest keep for themselves. The problem with this system is that there is absolutely no way for a peasant to climb the social ladder or even better his living conditions because the lord will crush him at the moment he spots a potential challenger. Furthermore, the lord always gets his tribute, no matter how unfruitful the year is. 

This model hasn’t changed for a millennium because the few in power held all the cards. There was enough population in Europe to slaughter anyone who dared to challenge it. At the beginning of the 1300s, Europe’s population was so high that famine was widely spread. It was the norm. Even some smaller nobles were struggling to feed themselves. Some overpopulated areas even turned to cannibalism. 

The larger population meant higher taxes, lower compensation, and no social benefits whatsoever. There were enough people to work in the fields and a hundred more to take their place if needed. 

After the plague ravished Europe, this all changed. The scares number of people meant there were not enough peasants to work the land of every noble. Furthermore, the illness entirely exterminated many noble families, and their land was free for taking. Peasants began demanding more fair wages and benefits, and the lords were forced to oblige. Not because they were empathic to the peasants, but because their guards and armies were thinned out to the point that any peasant revolt would have been a success. 

This way, commercialism and capitalism were born. Peasants did no longer work for free, but they received compensation. They started selling their product rather than just giving it away as a tax, and thus some of them managed to enrich themselves. 

The lack of labour force inclined Europeans to seek new, more efficient ways to work their land. Simultaneously, the church, which was one of the pillars of feudalism, lost the people’s trust, as many of the clergymen died from the plague and the new recruits were often not prepared to answer the questions and give hope to their flock. 

This gave way to the Renaissance and later to the Industrialisation and the Enlightenment. If it weren’t for the Black Death, Europe would never have needed to find more efficient ways to work the land. Thus the steam-powered engine wouldn’t have been invented. Our whole society would have been different. Many of today’s luxuries wouldn’t exist, and most probably, you wouldn’t be able to read this text. Technology simply would be unnecessary. It was for the thousand years prior, and if there were no significant changes to force the need, why would the people in power change anything? 

In conclusion

There is an old saying, “Whenever God closes a door, he opens a window.” The same happened 700 years ago, when the ship from Kaffa, running away from the Mongol attacks, brought the deadliest pandemic ever to roam the Earth. However, this pandemic brought us the change needed to push our society for a better future. 

The same goes for every disastrous event that took millions of lives – cholera, tuberculosis, HIV, and even the early to mid-20-century wars. They all brought positive change, a better future. 

So today, without even knowing if the COVID pandemic is as harsh as scientists say. Without speculating if it’s as deadly and dangerous as they claim it to be, we can be sure that this pandemic will bring changes. And they will be changes for the better. 

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