The Economics of Crime

Josh is 21 years old. Despite his fragile age, he has already been to multiple correctional facilities for all kinds of violent crimes. Right at the moment, the boy is plotting his next unlawful act. Most likely, it will be a violent crime. Josh hasn’t committed murder by now, but statistically, he most probably will by the age of 24. If the youngster manages not to become a murderer by this age, studies suggest, he won’t become one in the future as well. 

People think that Josh can be anyone, but that’s not true. Not all people are prone to become criminals. He is one of the 6% of children in his age group that has committed more than half of all violent crimes. Josh and his peers are not randomly drawn from the population. Instead, they have several specific economic markers that destined them for this life outside the law. This is the economics of crime and the answer to the question, why would one decide to be a criminal. 

Josh’s family

Josh, like most violent criminals, was born to a lower-class family in a low-income household. They still live in a small apartment or a small house in a ghetto, close to the big city. It doesn’t matter if the city is in the US, UK, Germany, France, Japan, New Zealand, or Brazil. Their neighbors are just as miserable as Josh’s family is, and the whole district is a place where crime flourishes. Police patrols rarely visit, and more often than not, they even refuse to answer distress calls in this area. 

It doesn’t matter if Josh is Black, White, Latino, Indian, Pakistani, Arab, or any other race. Under the right circumstances, any man is prone to become a criminal.   

Statistically, Josh’s father did not participate in his uprising. He either ran away, is in jail, or, in the worst-case scenario, was a victim of a violent crime himself. His mother is either working hard to provide for her children or is a deadbeat who doesn’t care what her children are up to. As long as there are alcohol and drugs, she is happy. In both cases, a single parent at a minimum wage has no chance to give her children the proper discipline despite her best efforts. And without a male role model to enforce society’s rules and teach them to distinguish right from wrong, the youngsters are at the edge of a slippery slope. 

Josh’s school

The school in Josh’s district is underfunded, to put it mildly. Knowing its location, most teachers prefer to stay jobless or work something else, rather than teaching there. The ones who haven’t quite yet had given up on the children long before Josh even set foot in this educational institution. This school is more of a recruitment station for criminals than an institution that provides a chance for young minds to learn. 

Why Josh became a criminal

Josh started his unlawful career at a very young age. Back then, of course, it was more in the lines of vandalism, like breaking windows or damaging public property. He rarely has the chance to eat a warm meal with his mother since she is preoccupied. Studies show that kids that have family dinners and eat warm, homecooked meals at least twice a week are less prone to turn to crime. 

The youngster often hears on the TV and in cartoons that crime does not pay. But as time goes by, a profound question starts to form in his mind. Crime doesn’t pay compared to what? With time, Josh realizes that his life choices are to either become a working-class chump and get less than minimum wage or try his luck in the criminal world. 

The boy has seen the luxury some criminals live in: expensive cars, big houses, and costly clothes. However, he doesn’t realize that only a tiny part of criminals manage to achieve such perks. Most criminals live just as badly as Josh. You can see on the news that many drug dealers, caught by the police, have been arrested in their parents’ house, where they live. More than 2/3 of criminals live on the edge of poverty, no better than they will if they try and get a job. Furthermore, the vast majority of criminals either get killed prematurely or are sent to prisons. Only gangsters that operate in the higher ranks in organized crime groups live relatively normal lives, and only their bosses reside in luxury.   

By the age of 14, Josh knows far too well the struggles of this world, the misery, and the hopelessness of his situation. Without proper education, without a role model to follow, and with his surroundings’ overwhelming influence, his choice is made for him.

The state’s role in Josh’s criminal descent

The state and its government are very much to blame for Josh’s descent into the criminal world. Studies have shown that the harsher punishments are, the smaller the number of offenses is. Here a significant role plays the risk/reward balance. In dictatorships, independent criminal activities like robberies, theft, and burglaries are far less common than in democracies. This is due to the severity of the punishment. The incentive that you will be thrown in a concentration camp, forced to work with minimum food, zero medical care, constant beatings by the guards, and forced to live in inhumane conditions, is far more persuasive than the relative comfort of the prison in the democratic world. Usually, in dictatorships, crime is organized and controlled by the government and is a tool of oppression.

Using punishment as an incentive to behave is not enough, as it can be seen anywhere in the world. The governments must give the groups that are at risk of falling out of society alternative as well. No person has ever chosen a life of crime because he is evil. They live it because they have no chance to have a normal life without it. If the alternative is being miserable, hungry, cold, and without a roof above your head, many will gladly take the risk of going to prison, where they at least have food, shelter, and health care. 

Josh’s first crime

Soon after Josh turned 14, he committed his first violent crime. The young boy robbed an elderly woman and, most importantly- he wasn’t caught. Criminals that manage to elude justice after their first crime are more confident to continue their path. The more they evade the law, the more daring they become. 

After several robberies without any repercussions, Josh is confident enough to commit a new crime – burglary. 

How Josh Thinks

Josh, despite having almost no education, has a strong sense of survival. This is the basis of all his crimes. The youngster doesn’t see himself as an evildoer or a bad person. He loves his mom and his friends, loves to play games, watch TV and play sports, just like any kid. Nevertheless, in his mind, Josh has to take from others to survive. Whenever he thinks about this, the boy describes himself as a victim of the system. Whenever he is attacking someone on the street, though, subconsciously, Josh pictures himself as a predator and his victim as a prey. 

Despite not understanding it, the young criminal has a profoundly economical way of thinking. For example, if a victim refuses and tries to struggle, he most likely will flee. Why waste energy and risk being caught when the next person will be terrified enough to give him what he wants. 

If Josh lives in the US, he will probably obtain a gun since more people there own one. The chances of him using one are also higher, as well as becoming a murderer. If the young criminal lives in the UK, Japan, and any other places with strict gun control, he will probably target weaker individuals who will rarely struggle. If any do, or they draw any weapon, he will flee. The risk is not worth the reward. 

The same goes for burglaries. If Josh is in the US, the chances of him entering a home while someone is inside is less than 13%, while in the UK and Canada, it is closer to 45%. This is again due to gun ownership and US citizens’ right to shoot on sight intruders on their property. If he is caught in the UK or Canada in someone’s home, the worst thing that will happen to him is to get to prison if he doesn’t manage to escape before the police arrive. If Josh is caught in a US home, on the other hand, he might lose his life. Again the risk of entering while there is someone at home becomes far less economically justified. 

Josh often thinks he is way too smart to be caught. This line of thought is proven time and time again when the youngster еludes the authorities. In fact, like 99% of violent criminals, he is not. Studies have shown that violent criminals have 8-10 points lower IQ than regular people in the US, while in Europe, criminals are behind ordinary people with 20-30 points. What keeps Josh out of jail is simply luck. 

The end of Josh’s story

Luck runs out sooner or later. With Josh, like 70% of juvenile delinquents, this happens at the age of 16. Despite his numerous crimes, this is his first offense in the judge’s eyes, so he goes lenient on him. Josh gets less than one year in a correctional facility. Soon the youngster is back on the streets. This time though, the boy has no luck at all. Josh is caught again not more than three weeks later and stays in a juvenile prison until he’s 18. Until he is 20, Josh will commit several more crimes and will spend another year in jail. 

By the age of 24, Josh will most likely commit murder. Depending on where he lives, the boy will either be executed, spend his life in incarceration, or get at least 20 years in prison. If Josh manages to get out, he is destined for a life in misery, almost no opportunity to find a proper job, so most likely, the former prisoner will again turn to crime. One life lost. 

If Josh doesn’t commit murder and doesn’t go to jail for a long time for another crime after 24, the youngster will most probably try to get in line. His 10-year career in the criminal world had shown him that he wouldn’t live much better if he continues this path. This is where the state can act up and help out. 

How can we as a society help

Josh is a fictional character, representing the statistical average. As a society, we can help change this average and ensure a smaller percentage of children will turn to a life of crime. Of course, we should be very clear that there are no simple solutions to complicated problems. To change this average, the whole society should change, not just some governmental policies. Despite not having a concrete solution, several steps can be used as a basis for this change.

1. Most people turn to crime out of necessity. They see no alternative. The government should invest in these people and present them with a better solution to their problem. Giving up money to poor people is not a solution and not an investment. Giving them rewards for bettering themselves and providing them with the means to do it will be highly beneficial. 
2. Education is key. Ever since the Enlightenment, education is a cornerstone of a stable society. Providing education in troubled districts will give young children a fighting chance to escape this life without turning to crime. Still, there will be those who will turn to crime, but it will be a step forward. Displacing teachers who show passion for their work and compensating them significantly for their efforts may prove highly beneficial. Make them the role models that many children like Josh need to avoid a life of crime.
3. Disband racism in all its forms. People are not the color of their skin. Unfortunately, they are the place they live in. Racism is everywhere, not just in the US. It’s all over the world. Stopping racism is the parents’ job. Teaching your children that a person is valued by his actions and not by the color of his skin will get our society a long way. 
4. Stop elitism. Pride is one of the seven deadly sins for a reason. Don’t look down on less fortunate people. Help them become as successful as you are. This will give you great joy and will help your society. Don’t teach your children to stay away from low-income children. On the contrary, encourage them to play with them, to befriend them, to help them. Never forget that all people strive to be equal to their peers. So your child may be a positive influence and save a child from Josh’s fate. 
5. Make ghettos secure. Dispatch more police where it’s needed and focus on violent crime. Have a perspective which are the dangerous crimes that are the gateways to life outside the law. 
6. Most importantly! Give a second chance. Numerous studies have shown that after 24 years of age, only 16-19% of criminals continue their destructive path. More than 80% of delinquents try to reform their lives after they turn 25. More often than not, though, this proves to be impossible. They have no education, long criminal records, and are thrown out of society. This is where the government should step in. Education programs should be established to tutor such people, how to become productive members of the community. Incentives to companies, hiring former criminals who went through such programs will ensure that the person, who wants to change, will have a stable job and won’t be tempted to return to his former ways. 

A society’s value is measured by the way it treats the weakest among them. The weakest, though, are not always the differently-abled or the sick. More often than not, the ones that need help are healthy and sturdy. They just need a nudge in the right direction. 

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